Extreme summer heat could lead to more than 5,000 deaths

This summer could see more than 5,000 deaths due to excess heat as temperatures look likely to exceed one of the deadliest heatwave years on record, Centre for Ageing Better is warning. The Office for National Statistics estimates that the hot weather of 2022 was a factor in more than 4,500 heat-related deaths and the stats already indicate 2025 could be even warmer.  The UK Health Security Agency issued three heat health alerts in June this year compared to just one alert, issued to a smaller area of the country, in June 2022. So far, this summer has seen higher average temperatures than in the same period in 2022. Data from the Met Office shows that the average maximum daily temperature in England in June 2025 was 21.9C, compared to 20C in June 2022. The average maximum daily temperatures for May 2025 were also 1.2C higher than in May 2022.  

And the number of extremely hot days this year is also higher with 12 days exceeding 28C in England in 2025 to the end of June, compared to just six days exceeding 28C by the end of June in 2022.  This is significant because research has shown that death rates increase more rapidly as temperatures rise above 27 degrees.  We are extremely concerned about the significant heat health risk to older people and warns that the poor-quality of the nation’s homes is a significant factor in this heightened risk – for this summer and the increasingly hotter summers of the future.

People aged 65 and above could likely constitute around four in five of heat-related excess deaths based on recent studies. Britain has the poorest insulated housing stock in Europe, which not only means homes lose heat quicker in winter but they are also very poor at keeping the heat out in summer.  In 30C heat, the temperature within a UK home will rise by five degrees within three hours - double the rate of heat gain in other parts of Europe.  Data shows that an ageing population living in ageing housing stock are at heightened risk from increasingly hot summers.  

Around 3 million people aged 65 and above in the UK are among the greatest at risk of becoming ill because they are living in properties between 45 and 80 years old that are most likely to overheat.  More than 488,000 households headed by someone aged 65 and above report their home overheating during summer months while national surveys have found that 1.9 million (8%) of all households report at least one part of their home gets uncomfortably hot. 

Millie Brown, Deputy Director for Homes at the Centre for Ageing Better, said:

“Current estimates indicate that the average number of heat-related deaths in this country could triple to 7,000 every year by the 2050s. This is an appalling scenario, and one that we should be doing all we can to avoid.

“Too many people are living in poor-quality homes that put their health, and lives, at risk in extreme temperatures, whether that be in the height of summer or the depths of winter. When building new homes or retrofitting existing homes, we need to consider how to keep homes cool in summer, as well as warm in winter. People also need access to information and advice if there are issues with overheating in their homes.

“This change in our nation’s climate is already set in motion. But we can mitigate some of the worst of its impact by building better quality homes that offer people shelter from extreme weather while also giving people better support to improving the state of their homes.”

Among the groups identified by the government as at heightened risk from increased temperatures are older people and the very young, people with pre-existing medical conditions and people from minoritised ethnic households.  The body’s ability to regulate body temperature worsens with age, and millions experience respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. There are more than 3 million people aged 65 and above living with these conditions who are statistically more likely to have their health impacted by a heatwave.  

Increasingly hot summers are also likely to put emergency services under increasing pressure. Warm days cause an additional 12,000 hospital admissions a year and, in the heatwave of 2022, the London Ambulance Service was receiving a 999 call every 13 seconds. To tackle the country’s poor quality housing crisis which leaves 7.5 million people living in unsafe homes in England, the Centre for Ageing Better is calling on the government to ensure that provisions for housing quality are included in the upcoming Housing Strategy.   

We are also calling for people to have better access to support and information on making improvements to their homes through a national network of one-stop shops for home improvement services, known as Good Home Hubs.