Ageing Better responds to new report warning one in five people in England will have a major illness by 2040

An additional 2.5 million people in England will be living with major illnesses such as cancer, diabetes, dementia and depression by 2040, according to the new report.

The study from the Health Foundation found that 9.1 million people in England will have a major illness – an increase of 37% compared with 2019.

At the age of 70, people will have an average of three long-term conditions, rising to more than five by the age of 85, researchers said.

They said four-fifths of the jump in major illnesses will be driven by an ageing population, with people living longer meaning they are more likely to encounter – and live with – ill health.

Around 80% (two million people) of the projected increase in major illness will affect those aged 70 and over.

“We welcome this new report from the Health Foundation and thank them for bringing renewed focus on the need for long-term planning to prepare for a growing ageing population. This is one of the reasons why we are calling for a Commissioner for Older People and Ageing for England, so we can develop a national ageing population strategy to help ensure public services are better prepared.

“We believe the numbers outlined in this report are a worst-case scenario that could be avoided, if we adopt policies that take a much-more rounded view of healthy ageing across society.

“Currently poor-quality homes are an enormous driver of inequality and ill health and yet too little is done to ensure that everyone can live in a home that is warm, safe and accessible.

“As the number of working-age people with long-term health conditions rises, government and employers need to provide greater support to help people manage their health conditions so they can continue to work if they want to or need to.

“The Centre for Ageing Better is also extremely concerned about who in society is most likely to be living with major illness and its consequences, now and in the future. The worst health outcomes are found amongst the poorest people in society, there is a staggering 19-year gap in healthy life expectancy between the richest and poorest. We need action to tackle these stark inequalities with a much greater focus on the social causes of poor health and healthy ageing to give everyone the same opportunity to age well.

“Overburdened public services are not an inevitable consequence of a growing ageing population. But doing nothing now to prepare for that future is one way to ensure that bleak picture becomes a reality.”