Context | The State of Ageing 2022

What does the chart show?

• The population pyramid shows the age structure of the population in England in five-year age bands from 2021 to 2060.
• The population of England which was estimated to be 56.6 million in mid-2020, is projected to increase by almost 2 million to 58.5 million over the decade to mid-2030. The population will be 61.2 million by 2060.
• The number of older people in England is increasing: there are currently (mid-2021) 7.8 million people aged 70 and over. By 2030, this number will have increased by 16%, to over 9 million. By 2060, it will be 12.5 million.
• At the same time, the number of younger people is decreasing: the number of people younger than 25 will decline from 16.8 to 15.7 million in 2050, the result of declining birth rates.
• In 2021, there are more men than women at all ages younger than 34; as these people age it is therefore the case that there are more men than women in increasingly older age groups. For example, by 2060, there will be more men than women in every age group up to 64.
• However, at every age after 35, there are currently more women than men, with the biggest difference (of 171,000 people) among people aged 85-89.  
• The difference between the number of older men and women gets gradually greater with time reflecting women’s higher life expectancy:
  • In 2050, there will be almost a quarter of a million more women than men aged 85-89.
  • In 2060, there will be three-quarters of a million more women than men aged 80 and over.

What does the chart show?

• There is also an increasing share of older people in the population:
  • People aged 70 and over in England currently comprise 14% of the population.
  • By 2065, this proportion will have increased to more than one in five (21%).
  • The proportion of people aged 85 and over in England will more than double from 3% to 6% between 2020 and 2065.
  • Meanwhile, the proportion of the population that is younger than 25 will decline from 30% to 25%.

We also know that:

• The age structure of our population is changing as a result of longer lives, the ageing of the baby boomers and a falling birth rate:
  • The average number of children women (in England and Wales) have by the age of 30 years has been steadily falling from 1.89 children per woman in 1941 to 0.96 for women born in 1990 (the most recent cohort to reach 30 years of age).
  • In addition, half of women born in England and Wales in 1990 remained childless by their 30th birthday, compared with 38% for the 1961 cohort.
  • These trends account for the fact that the numbers and proportion of children and young people in the population is decreasing.
  • Our age structure is also changing because deaths – which used to happen across the life course – are increasingly associated with old age. It is now the case in England that 95% of all deaths are in people aged 50 and over and 85% in people aged 65 and over.

A large increase in the number of older people has profound implications for public spending and for society as a whole. 

What do the charts show?

• The population of people from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) backgrounds is young. People from a BAME background comprise 24% of the birth to 9 years age group, but just 5% of people aged 70 and over.
• Looking at the age structure of each ethnic group separately shows that the mixed ethnicity group is the youngest – almost six in ten (58%) people from this ethnic group are younger than 20 and just 1.5% are aged 70 or over.
• In contrast, White British people are evenly distributed across the full range of age groups – between 10% and 15% of this population can be found in each of the age groups up to 79.

We also know that:

• Taking Asian or Asian British, Black African or Caribbean or Black British, mixed ethnicity and other ethnic groups together, there are 1.7 million people in the youngest age group (from birth to age 9), but the number gets steadily smaller with age, so that there are just 136,000 people with a BAME background in the oldest age group of 80 years and over in England and Wales.

People from BAME groups have doubled as a proportion of the population in the last 20 years. Hence, it follows that, as these people age, the older population will inevitably become more ethnically diverse.

This demographic change is important as we contemplate our ageing population because people from BAME backgrounds face shocking levels of inequality. They are under-represented in the richest wealth group (at 12% compared with 21% for people from White backgrounds) and over-represented in the poorest (29% compared with 19%). And as they get older, the inequalities they face become magnified as disadvantage across the life course accumulates. Indeed, it has been shown that health inequalities get greater with age. So, if we want everyone to have a good later life, we must deal with the conditions that give rise to ethnic inequality earlier in the life course; otherwise, the already troubling inequalities in our society will grow exponentially as people from BAME backgrounds age. At the same time, we must expand data collection so that we can understand the different experiences of people in BAME and White communities as they age. This becomes increasingly pressing as our older population becomes more ethnically diverse.

What does the chart show?

• The wealthiest men can expect to live almost nine and a half years longer at birth than the poorest (83.5 years compared with 74.1 years); for women, the difference is almost eight years (86.4 years compared with 78.7 years).
• At age 65, the richest men can expect almost 60% of their remaining life to be free of disability compared with less than 40% for the poorest men.
• At age 65, women have less disability-free life ahead of them than men, but, like men, there is a 20-percentage-point difference between the richest and poorest. While the richest 65-year-old women can expect about half of their remaining years to be free of disability, this drops to less than a third for the poorest women.

The health inequalities we see in the UK are substantial. But rather than shrinking, they are actually getting bigger. There are many things driving this, including poverty, unequal access to good education, the quality of the houses and communities we live in, the types of work we do, the access we have to physical activity and nutritious food, and the levels of stress we endure. The urgency of changing the underlying conditions that generate these inequalities has been laid bare by the COVID-19 crisis (see our ‘Health’ chapter for more discussion of this) and is vital if everyone is to enjoy a good later life. 

What does the chart show?

• The number of people in mid- and later life who live alone has been steadily rising over the last 20 years:
  • The number of people aged 45-64 living alone increased by almost 900,000 between 2000 and 2020 and most of that increase (66%) was men.
  • There was a 67% increase in the number of men aged 65 and over living alone between 2000 and 2019.
  • The number of women aged 65 and over living alone increased by just 8% between 2000 and 2019. But there were almost three times as many women as men in this age group living alone in the year 2000 to start off with.
• While the number of people aged 45-64 living alone increased slightly between 2019 and 2020, the number of people aged 65 and over living alone declined. This was almost certainly a result of the pandemic and the need to provide help and care to older people who may have been required or advised to shield.
• Using UK population estimates of the number of men and women aged 65 and over shows that more than a third (36%) of women aged 65 and over currently live alone, as do almost a quarter of men in this age group.

We also know that:

These trends are the result, in part, of changes in family structures and relationships:

• In 2020, 18% of people aged 45-64 in England had never been married or in a civil partnership, compared with 7% in 2002.
• Divorce is occurring more frequently in later life: whereas in 1950, just 7% of divorces involved a woman aged 50 or over and 11% a man aged 50 or over, by 2018, these proportions had increased to a quarter and a third, respectively.
• Since 2005, the number of divorces involving a man aged 70 or over has increased by almost 50%, and those involving a woman aged 70 or over has increased by 62%.
• Also reflecting changing social mores, the proportion of people aged 50 or over who identify as lesbian, gay or bisexual is growing (from 1.3% of those aged 50-64 in 2014 to 1.7% in 2018, according to ONS estimates) – and will grow more, as younger generations age. A 2011 survey found that lesbian, gay and bisexual people over the age of 55 are more likely to be single, more likely to live alone, less likely to have children, and twice as likely to rely on external services for health, social care and support.

This data reminds us that our older population will not always look like it does today. With more people likely to be living outside a more traditional family structure as they age, the need for other community and social infrastructure to support people in later life will be even more important. This is likely to be particularly important for older men who are known to be especially vulnerable to social isolation. 

What do the charts show?

• Great Britain has among the worst mandatory (state) pension provision across OECD nations (selected European nations shown in the chart). The gross pension replacement rate represents the level of pension benefits at retirement age from mandatory public pension schemes as a percentage of the earnings of an average earner when working.  
• The average gross replacement rate across OECD countries is 51.8% for men and 50.9% for women.
• There is substantial cross-country variation, ranging from rates below 30% in Estonia, Ireland and Lithuania, to 75% and above in Denmark, Italy and Luxembourg.
• The average gross replacement rate in Great Britain is – at 49% - less than the OECD average.
• At the same time, we see a worrying increase in the proportion of people of pension age who are in poverty (defined as below 60% of median income after housing costs): 
  • Of particular note is the sharp uptick between 2018/19 and 2019/20 from 16% (or 1.9 million people) to 18% (2.1 million people).
  • As a result, the proportion in 2019/20 is almost 5 percentage points higher than in 2012/13 when it was 13%.

The story of pensioner poverty over the last 50 years has been broadly positive: pensioners in the 1960s experienced by far the highest rates of poverty, and now they experience the lowest. This positive trend has been driven by a range of factors, including increasing levels of employment at later ages, increasing entitlement to the state pension (including a recognition of years taken out of the workforce by women caring for children), the growth in the size of private pension pots, and the introduction of the Pension Credit.

The factors putting this growth under threat are as yet not entirely clear. Nor is it clear whether, how and to what extent the pandemic has played a part in the recent trends. The impact of raising state pension age will have to be watched carefully, especially in its effects on the poorest people, who will additionally be experiencing a greater burden of ill-health, curtailing their working lives. But poverty at later ages is not inevitable and poverty rates will be a key metric to watch in the coming years, as an indicator of whether we really are improving later life.

What does the chart show?

• Average wealth rises with age, but so does the gap between the wealthiest and the least wealthy:
  • The people in the least wealthy decile who are aged 65 or over have six times more wealth on average (excluding pension costs) than the least wealthy 25-34 year olds, but 41 times less wealth than the wealthiest in their own age group.
  • For people aged 25-34, the gap between the wealthiest and least wealthy decile of people is £119,000. But for people aged 55-64, the gap between the richest and poorest deciles has reached £570,000.

The fact that average wealth rises with age is not surprising: over a lifetime, people tend to accumulate assets (most notably, a home), and many will receive inheritances. But this chart shows just how stark the gap is between those who are able to accumulate wealth, and those who are not. And it illustrates the risk involved in targeting policies at all older people based on their average higher wealth. Such age-based policies will always risk penalising those who have struggled most throughout their lives. 

What does the chart show?

• The net wealth (all non-pension wealth) of the richest 20% of people in their fifties and sixties more than doubled, from £690,650 to £1,353,392, between 2002 and 2018.
• Meanwhile, for the poorest 20%, their wealth fell in value by a third to £6,582.5 over the same period. This means that it would take the combined wealth of 200 of the poorest people to equal the wealth of just one of the wealthiest.

What does the chart show?

• A sizeable proportion of people in their fifties and sixties say that they are not managing financially. However, there is a large disparity by ethnic group: while a little more than a quarter of White men and women are not managing financially, this is the case for more than half of Black men and women in this age group. 

We also know that:

• The same research found that the average weekly income for people from White and Asian background was very similar, at about £500 a week, but much lower, at £397 a week, for Black people.
• As a result, one-third of people from Black backgrounds reported being behind on bills, rent and mortgage costs, compared with nearly one in five (17%) people from all BAME backgrounds, and just one in 20 (5%) people from White backgrounds.

What does the chart show?

• The peak age for caring is 55-64: 28% of people in this age group provide some level of care.
• It is notable that there is no decrease with age from 45 years onwards in the proportion of people with the biggest caring responsibilities, that is, more than 35 hours of caring per week. That is, older people are doing as much full-time caring as people in mid-life.

We also know that:

• In all age groups up to the age of 74, the proportion of women providing informal care is greater than that of men. This trend reverses for all age groups over 75, when men are more likely to be informal carers.
• Of course, caring for others has really come to the fore during the pandemic, when many older people will have required support and assistance due to shielding guidelines. But it is important to remember ‒ and the data above shows this ‒ that older people have not just been passive sufferers and receivers of care during this pandemic: they have also been a key part of the informal social infrastructure mobilised to cope with it. Indeed, 11% of people in their sixties, 17% of people in their seventies, and nearly one in five people aged 80 or over said that they had supported someone in their home during lockdown.
• And in spite of the ‘shielding’ advice to people aged 70 or over, one in three people aged 65 or over had provided support to someone who did not live in their home.

See more discussion of the role that people in mid- and later life play in our communities in the ‘Communities’ section. 

What does the chart show?

• As we consider the state of ageing today, we cannot ignore the enormous impact that the pandemic has had. In November 2020, we collected survey data in which large proportions of people reported a negative impact of the pandemic on multiple facets of their lives: 
  • For work and financial security, satisfaction with the home, friendships and emotional wellbeing, people in the oldest age group (70 and over) were the least likely, and people in their fifties the most likely, to report the pandemic as having a very or fairly negative impact on these aspects.
  • However, the pattern was reversed for physical health and relationships in the family and community, for which the likelihood of reporting a negative impact increased with age.

We also know that:

• The same research shows that there is a strong socioeconomic pattern in the impact of the pandemic, with people in their fifties and sixties who are struggling financially much more likely than those who are comfortably off to have experienced a negative effect in these areas.
• Age has been a major risk factor for dying from COVID-19. In fact, more than 90% of deaths were in people aged 60 and over, 39% in people aged 60-79, and 52% in people aged 80 and over.
• In a stark illustration of the role of the importance of maintaining good health as we age, the data shows that deaths from COVID-19 occurred almost entirely in people with a pre-existing health condition. Of the more than 39,000 deaths in people aged 60-79, 95% were in people with a pre-existing health condition. This was the case too for 83% of deaths in people aged 40-59.
• People from a minority ethnic background were also at greater risk of contracting COVID-19 and of poor outcomes if they did. The rate of death involving COVID-19 was highest for the Bangladeshi ethnic group (5.0 times greater than the White British group for men, and 4.5 times greater for women), followed by the Pakistani (3.1 times greater for men, 2.6 for women) and Black African (2.4 for men, 1.7 for women) ethnic groups. This mirrors research showing that Pakistani and Bangladeshi people have the poorest self-rated health as they age.

The large proportion of older people reporting a negative impact of the pandemic on their physical health is cause for concern. We know that there has been a significant reduction in physical activity levels, particularly among the oldest people (see our health chapter for more information), putting them at significant risk of poor health outcomes and frailty. But an additional concern for the health outcomes of our older population is the lengthy waiting lists for treatment. Before the pandemic, in February 2020, there were 4.43 million people on a waiting list for care; in November 2021, this had risen to a record number of almost 6 million people. Waiting times are also much higher than pre-COVID; there are now more than 2 million people who have been waiting over 18 weeks for treatment and almost 307,000 who have been waiting for over a year.

And the challenges in accessing care post-pandemic are not being experienced equally: access to elective treatment has fallen most in the most deprived parts of England, the very places where we know that people’s health is worse and where the need for treatment and care is highest.

Although we don’t have a breakdown of the waiting list figures by age, it seems reasonable to assume that older people are bearing a disproportionate burden – after all, we know that the prevalence of long-term chronic conditions, such as musculoskeletal conditions, increases with age. Indeed, a survey by Independent Age found that almost one in three people (36%) aged 65 and over have been waiting more than 12 months for a planned surgical procedure, such as a hip or knee replacement, and that many in later life were deteriorating rapidly as they waited for surgery. Over half of people (52%) aged 50 and over waiting for an operation reported being in pain every day and 55% were struggling with day-to-day activities.